The Influence of Fragmented Landscapes on Speciation.

In the face of unprecedented global transformations, unraveling the intricate mechanisms governing biodiversity patterns is imperative for predicting and interpreting species responses. An important element in this interplay is fragmentation and the spatial mosaic or arrangement of suitable sites within the landscape. Beyond its well-documented impact on biodiversity loss, fragmented landscapes also influence the origin of biodiversity, by influencing speciation dynamics. This research employs a model that integrates spatial configuration and dispersal abilities of individuals to investigate the impact of landscape configuration on species' evolutionary trajectories. Specifically, we propose a microevolutionary model where individuals are characterized by their dispersal ability and a genome, allowing population evolution and diversification. Space is explicitly characterized by suitable and unsuitable sites that define fragmented landscapes. Our model demonstrates how intermediate dispersal abilities enhance diversification. However, simulations of more fragmented landscapes result in a lower total number of individuals and a lower percentage of occupied sites by individuals, particularly when species have limited dispersal abilities. Furthermore, we have found that intermediate levels of fragmentation can stimulate greater species richness, while higher levels of speciation and extinction events tend to occur under higher fragmentations. Our results also show a non-monotonic dependence of richness on dispersal, supporting the intermediate dispersal hypothesis as promotor of diversification, demonstrating the synergistic effects of landscape configuration and species dispersal ability in the processes of speciation, extinction, and diversification. This impact of fragmentation poses a real challenge for biodiversity in the context of a dynamic world.

Global determinants of insect mitochondrial genetic diversity.

Understanding global patterns of genetic diversity is essential for describing, monitoring, and preserving life on Earth. To date, efforts to map macrogenetic patterns have been restricted to vertebrates, which comprise only a small fraction of Earth's biodiversity. Here, we construct a global map of predicted insect mitochondrial genetic diversity from cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 sequences, derived from open data. We calculate the mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and genetic diversity evenness of insect assemblages across the globe, identify their environmental correlates, and make predictions of mitochondrial genetic diversity levels in unsampled areas based on environmental data. Using a large single-locus genetic dataset of over 2 million globally distributed and georeferenced mtDNA sequences, we find that mitochondrial genetic diversity evenness follows a quadratic latitudinal gradient peaking in the subtropics. Both mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and evenness positively correlate with seasonally hot temperatures, as well as climate stability since the last glacial maximum. Our models explain 27.9% and 24.0% of the observed variation in mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and evenness in insects, respectively, making an important step towards understanding global biodiversity patterns in the most diverse animal taxon.

Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon.

Amazonian environments are being degraded by modern industrial and agricultural activities at a pace far above anything previously known, imperiling its vast biodiversity reserves and globally important ecosystem services. The most substantial threats come from regional deforestation, because of export market demands, and global climate change. The Amazon is currently perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a nonforested landscape. These changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively. Policies to prevent the worst outcomes are known and must be enacted immediately. We now need political will and leadership to act on this information. To fail the Amazon is to fail the biosphere, and we fail to act at our peril.

A framework for near-real time monitoring of diversity patterns based on indirect remote sensing, with an application in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest.

Monitoring biodiversity change is key to effective conservation policy. While it is difficult to establish in situ biodiversity monitoring programs at broad geographical scales, remote sensing advances allow for near-real time Earth observations that may help with this goal. We combine periodical and freely available remote sensing information describing temperature and precipitation with curated biological information from several groups of animals and plants in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest to design an indirect remote sensing framework that monitors potential loss and gain of biodiversity in near-real time. Using data from biological collections and information from repeated field inventories, we demonstrate that this framework has the potential to accurately predict trends of biodiversity change for both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity. The framework identifies areas of potential diversity loss more accurately than areas of species gain, and performs best when applied to broadly distributed groups of animals and plants.

Integrating remote sensing with ecology and evolution to advance biodiversity conservation.

Remote sensing has transformed the monitoring of life on Earth by revealing spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity through structural, compositional and functional measurements of ecosystems. Yet, many aspects of Earth's biodiversity are not directly quantified by reflected or emitted photons. Inclusive integration of remote sensing with field-based ecology and evolution is needed to fully understand and preserve Earth's biodiversity. In this Perspective, we argue that multiple data types are necessary for almost all draft targets set by the Convention on Biological Diversity. We examine five key topics in biodiversity science that can be advanced by integrating remote sensing with in situ data collection from field sampling, experiments and laboratory studies to benefit conservation. Lowering the barriers for bringing these approaches together will require global-scale collaboration.

The effect of past defaunation on ranges, niches, and future biodiversity forecasts.

Humans have reshaped the distribution of biodiversity across the globe, extirpating species from regions otherwise suitable and restricting populations to a subset of their original ranges. Here, we ask if anthropogenic range contractions since the Late Pleistocene led to an under-representation of the realized niches for megafauna, an emblematic group of taxa often targeted for restoration actions. Using reconstructions of past geographic distributions (i.e., natural ranges) for 146 extant terrestrial large-bodied (>44 kg) mammals, we estimate their climatic niches as if they had retained their original distributions and evaluate their observed niche dynamics. We found that range contractions led to a sizeable under-representation of the realized niches of several species (i.e., niche unfilling). For 29 species, more than 10% of the environmental space once seen in their natural ranges has been lost due to anthropogenic activity, with at least 12 species undergoing reductions of more than 50% of their realized niches. Eighteen species may now be confined to low-suitability locations, where fitness and abundance are likely diminished; we consider these taxa 'climatic refugees'. For those species, conservation strategies supported by current ranges risk being misguided if current, suboptimal habitats are considered baseline for future restoration actions. Because most climate-based biodiversity forecasts rely exclusively on current occurrence records, we went on to test the effect of neglecting historical information on estimates of species' potential distribution - as a proxy of sensitivity to climate change. We found that niche unfilling driven by past range contraction leads to an overestimation of sensitivity to future climatic change, resulting in 50% higher rates of global extinction, and underestimating the potential for megafauna conservation and restoration under future climate change. In conclusion, range contractions since the Late Pleistocene have also left imprints on megafauna realized climatic niches. Therefore, niche truncation driven by defaunation can directly affect climate and habitat-based conservation strategies.

A multidisciplinary framework for biodiversity prediction in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot / Integrando disciplinas para a predição da biodiversidade da Floresta Atlântica no Brasil

Abstract: We briefly describe selected results from our thematic project focused on the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest ("AF BIOTA"), which was jointly funded by FAPESP's BIOTA Program, the U.S. National Science Foundation Dimensions of Biodiversity Program, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). As one of the five most important hotspots of biodiversity in the world, the Atlantic Forest (AF) holds less than 16% of its vegetation cover, yet, amongst the hotspots, it still harbors one of the highest numbers of species, including endemics. By gathering specialists across multiple disciplines (biology, geology, engineering), we aimed to understand how this megabiodiversity was built through time, informing biodiversity science and conservation. Among the results, we trained 18 Master's and 26 Ph.D. students, published more than 400 peer-reviewed papers that improved our knowledge about the forest's biologic and climatic diversity and dynamics through time, developed new analytical methods, produced outreach videos and articles, and provided data to help define biodiversity conservation policies.

Resumo: Descrevemos de forma resumida resultados selecionados do nosso projeto temático com foco na biodiversidade da Floresta Atlântica ("AF BIOTA"), que foi financiado pelo BIOTA FAPESP e pelo programa "Dimensions of Biodiversity" da "U.S. National Science Foundation" e "National Aeronautics and Space Administration" (NASA). Devido à sua megabiodiversidade (que inclui várias espécies endêmicas), e por restar menos de 16% da vegetação original, a Floresta Atlântica (FA) é uma das cinco áreas mais importantes para a biodiversidade do planeta ("biodiversity hotspot"). Reunimos especialistas de diversas disciplinas (biologia, geologia, engenharia) visando compreender como essa megabiodiversidade evoluiu ao longo do tempo e fornecer informações científicas para a sua conservação. Dentre os resultados obtidos, nós formamos 18 mestres e 26 doutores, publicamos mais de 400 artigos científicos que aumentaram o conhecimento sobre a diversidade biológica e climática da FA e sua dinâmica ao longo do tempo, desenvolvemos novos métodos analíticos, produzimos material de divulgação científica e fornecemos dados para desenvolver políticas públicas de conservação da biodiversidade.

Molecular phylogenetic inference of the howler monkey radiation (Primates: Alouatta).

Howler monkeys (Alouatta), comprising between nine and 14 species and ranging from southern Mexico to northern Argentina, are the most widely distributed platyrrhines. Previous phylogenetic studies of howlers have used chromosomal and morphological characters and a limited number of molecular markers; however, branching patterns conflict between studies or remain unresolved. We performed a new phylogenetic analysis of Alouatta using both concatenated and coalescent-based species tree approaches based on 14 unlinked non-coding intergenic nuclear regions. Our taxon sampling included five of the seven South American species (Alouatta caraya, Alouatta belzebul, Alouatta guariba, Alouatta seniculus, Alouatta sara) and the two recognized species from Mesoamerica (Alouatta pigra, Alouatta palliata). Similarly to previous studies, our phylogenies supported a Mesoamerican clade and a South American clade. For the South American howlers, both methods recovered the Atlantic Forest endemic A. guariba as sister to all remaining South American species, albeit with moderate support. Moreover, we found no support for the previously proposed sister relationship between A. guariba and A. belzebul. For the first time, a clade composed of A. sara and A. caraya was identified. The relationships among the other South American howlers, however, were not fully supported. Our estimates for divergence times within Alouatta are generally older compared to estimates in earlier studies. However, they conform to recent studies proposing a Miocene age for the Isthmus of Panama and for the uplift of the northern Andes. Our results also point to an early genetic isolation of A. guariba in the Atlantic Forest, in agreement with the hypothesis of biotic exchange across South American rain forests in the Miocene. Collectively, these findings contribute to a better understanding of the diversification processes among howler monkey species; however, they also suggest that further comprehension of the evolutionary history of the Alouatta radiation will rely on broadened taxonomic, geographic, and genomic sampling.

Geographic restriction, genetic divergence, and morphological disparity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forests: Insights from Leposoma lizards (Gymnophthalmidae, Squamata).

Lineage differentiation, long-term persistence, and range limitation promote high levels of phylogenetic and phylogeographic endemisms and likely underlie the abundant morphologically cryptic diversity observed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forests (AF). We explore lineage differentiation and range restriction in the AF and ask if genetic divergence and morphological disparity are correlated by integrating coalescent-based species delimitation, molecular phylogenetic, and morphological analyses in the lizard genus Leposoma. We present the first species tree for Leposoma and of their tribe, the Ecpleopodini. The analyses are based on the largest dataset ever assembled for Leposoma in terms of number of species (all represented), genetic markers (12 loci), and geographic coverage (~2,500 km). The exercise allows us to robustly delimit species within the genus and phylogeographic lineages within all species. We find support for the monophyly of the genus and for the recognition of a yet undescribed species around the Baía de Todos-os-Santos, in the state of Bahia; this form is distinct from all other congeners, both genetically and morphologically. We find that L. baturitensis, from the northeastern state of Ceará, is basal to the genus - and sister to a clade of six species restricted to the AF across the eastern coast of Brazil. Relationships within this coastal clade are ((((L. annectans, Leposoma sp.), L. scincoides), L. puk) (L. nanodactylus, L. sinepollex)). Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses, together with precise distribution data, allowed us to update the ranges of species and phylogeographic lineages. We reveal pervasive geographic restriction of divergent lineages in Leposoma at and below species level and discuss how forest refuges and rivers might have contributed to it. We find that morphological disparity lags behind genetic divergence in the genus because although they are correlated, the first accumulates at a much slower rate than the latter. We hope to encourage new studies in the area of AF north of the Doce river; phylogeographic sampling in that region has been much less common relative to southern sites, yet it may hold the key to several important processes defining biodiversity patterns in eastern Brazil. This appears to specially apply to processes underlying geographic restriction of morphologically cryptic, yet genetic divergent lineages, as the case of Leposoma.

Outstanding diversity and microendemism in a clade of rare Atlantic Forest montane frogs.

Distributed across topographically complex landscapes that vary from lowland to high elevation, the Atlantic Forest harbors one of the richest biotas worldwide. Atlantic Forest amphibians are particularly speciose, taxonomic accounts are rising and the group is used as model for biogeographic inference. Past climate-related habitat fragmentation is often invoked to explain diversification, with montane taxa expected to become more widespread during glacial times and restrained at interglacials. In this study we investigate diversification in Ischnocnema lactea and I. holti (Anura: Brachycephalidae), two rare frog species inhabiting Atlantic Forest montane regions in Southeastern Brazil. Previous phylogenetic accounts have suggested uncertain limits between these two sister species. We assembled a multilocus DNA dataset, delimited lineages in this clade, and used ecological niche modeling to explore past and future putative ranges. Assignment analyses and traditional and coalescent phylogenetic methods confirmed the existence of a species complex of Miocene origin comprising nine lineages, most of which show very narrow ranges. Lineages were fully supported as species based in coalescent species delimitation, but the phylogenetic relationships among lineages in higher elevation were unresolved. Models of past ranges suggest extensive suitable areas at the last glacial maximum which, along with phylogenetic uncertainty, are consistent with a hypothesis that climate driven vicariance at higher elevation areas resulted in hard polytomies. Species distribution models under future climates suggest narrower ranges of the lineages relative to now, but no species are currently considered endangered. Overall, our results argue in favor for the reassessment of the taxonomic and conservation status of the I. holti - I. lactea species complex.

Multilocus phylogeny of Paratelmatobiinae (Anura: Leptodactylidae) reveals strong spatial structure and previously unknown diversity in the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest harbors high levels of anuran diversity and endemism, including several taxa restricted to small geographic ranges. Here, we provide a multilocus phylogeny for Paratelmatobiinae, a leptodactylid subfamily composed of small-ranged species distributed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and in the campo rupestre ecosystem. We performed Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood analyses using three mitochondrial and five nuclear markers, and a matrix comprising a broad taxonomic sampling. We then delimitated independently evolving lineages within the group. We recovered Paratelmatobiinae and each of its four genera as monophyletic and robustly supported. Five putatively new species included in our analyses were unambiguously supported in the phylogenetic trees and delimitation analyses. We also recovered other deeply divergent and geographically structured lineages within the four genera of Paratelmatobiinae. Our estimation of divergence times indicates that diversification in the subfamily began in the Eocene and continued until the Pleistocene. We discuss possible scenarios of diversification for the four genera of Paratelmatobiinae, and outline the implications of our findings for taxonomy and conservation.

Effects of climate and geography on spatial patterns of genetic structure in tropical skinks.

Knowledge of how contemporary and historical factors drive patterns of genetic structure across geographic space can shed light on the processes underlying diversification. This approach is especially fruitful in studies of widespread species or species clades that occur across multiple environmental conditions and biomes. In the Neotropics, specifically, molecular data from widespread vertebrate species have revealed high levels of lineage diversity and spatial genetic structure - yet studies that explore the possible correlates of local structure patterns are lacking. We investigate the distribution of lineage diversity within two widespread South American skink species complexes of the genus Mabuya. We characterize genetic structure and diversity in these widely ranged lizards, and identify potential geographic and environmental correlates, to shed light on the processes that promote lineage diversification across the heterogeneous landscapes which they occupy. In both groups, we found mitochondrial lineages to be spatially structured along the coastal forests and the savannas of Brazil. These mtDNA patterns are, however, not shared with those inferred from nuclear DNA markers. The geographic location of major mitochondrial genetic breaks is consistent with those of other taxa, suggesting common responses to former landscape change in eastern South America, particularly along geological faults. Genetic differentiation is correlated with environmental turnover and geographic separation in one, but not in the other, group of skinks. Compared to other studies of similarly widely distributed organisms, the link between spatial environmental gradients and genetic differentiation is not as strong or consistent, suggesting a more complex history underlying current phylogeographic patterns. Our genetic data indicate the existence of yet undescribed diversity in wide-ranging lizards, and the value of phylogenetic and phylogeographic studies of similarly understudied species.

Links between prey assemblages and poison frog toxins: A landscape ecology approach to assess how biotic interactions affect species phenotypes.

Ecological studies of species pairs showed that biotic interactions promote phenotypic change and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. However, it is unclear how phenotypes respond to synergistic interactions with multiple taxa. We investigate whether interactions with multiple prey species explain spatially structured variation in the skin toxins of the neotropical poison frog Oophaga pumilio. Specifically, we assess how dissimilarity (i.e., beta diversity) of alkaloid-bearing arthropod prey assemblages (68 ant species) and evolutionary divergence between frog populations (from a neutral genetic marker) contribute to frog poison dissimilarity (toxin profiles composed of 230 different lipophilic alkaloids sampled from 934 frogs at 46 sites). We find that models that incorporate spatial turnover in the composition of ant assemblages explain part of the frog alkaloid variation, and we infer unique alkaloid combinations across the range of O. pumilio. Moreover, we find that alkaloid variation increases weakly with the evolutionary divergence between frog populations. Our results pose two hypotheses: First, the distribution of only a few prey species may explain most of the geographic variation in poison frog alkaloids; second, different codistributed prey species may be redundant alkaloid sources. The analytical framework proposed here can be extended to other multitrophic systems, coevolutionary mosaics, microbial assemblages, and ecosystem services.

PaleoClim, high spatial resolution paleoclimate surfaces for global land areas.

High-resolution, easily accessible paleoclimate data are essential for environmental, evolutionary, and ecological studies. The availability of bioclimatic layers derived from climatic simulations representing conditions of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene has revolutionized the study of species responses to Late Quaternary climate change. Yet, integrative studies of the impacts of climate change in the Early Pleistocene and Pliocene - periods in which recent speciation events are known to concentrate - have been hindered by the limited availability of downloadable, user-friendly climatic descriptors. Here we present PaleoClim, a free database of downscaled paleoclimate outputs at 2.5-minute resolution (~5 km at equator) that includes surface temperature and precipitation estimates from snapshot-style climate model simulations using HadCM3, a version of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre General Circulation Model. As of now, the database contains climatic data for three key time periods spanning from 3.3 to 0.787 million years ago: the Marine Isotope Stage 19 (MIS19) in the Pleistocene (~787 ka), the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3.264-3.025 Ma), and MIS M2 in the Late Pliocene (~3.3 Ma).

Local adaptation in mainland anole lizards: Integrating population history and genome-environment associations.

Environmental gradients constrain physiological performance and thus species' ranges, suggesting that species occurrence in diverse environments may be associated with local adaptation. Genome-environment association analyses (GEAA) have become central for studies of local adaptation, yet they are sensitive to the spatial orientation of historical range expansions relative to landscape gradients. To test whether potentially adaptive genotypes occur in varied climates in wide-ranged species, we implemented GEAA on the basis of genomewide data from the anole lizards Anolis ortonii and Anolis punctatus, which expanded from Amazonia, presently dominated by warm and wet settings, into the cooler and less rainy Atlantic Forest. To examine whether local adaptation has been constrained by population structure and history, we estimated effective population sizes, divergence times, and gene flow under a coalescent framework. In both species, divergence between Amazonian and Atlantic Forest populations dates back to the mid-Pleistocene, with subsequent gene flow. We recovered eleven candidate genes involved with metabolism, immunity, development, and cell signaling in A. punctatus and found no loci whose frequency is associated with environmental gradients in A. ortonii. Distinct signatures of adaptation between these species are not associated with historical constraints or distinct climatic space occupancies. Similar patterns of spatial structure between selected and neutral SNPs along the climatic gradient, as supported by patterns of genetic clustering in A. punctatus, may have led to conservative GEAA performance. This study illustrates how tests of local adaptation can benefit from knowledge about species histories to support hypothesis formulation, sampling design, and landscape gradient characterization.

Biogeographic links between southern Atlantic Forest and western South America: Rediscovery, re-description, and phylogenetic relationships of two rare montane anole lizards from Brazil.

Data on species ranges and phylogenetic relationships are key in historical biogeographical inference. In South America, our understanding of the evolutionary processes that underlie biodiversity patterns varies greatly across regions. Little is known, for instance, about the drivers of high endemism in the southern montane region of the Atlantic Rainforest. In this region, former biogeographic connections with other South American ecosystems have been invoked to explain the phylogenetic affinities of a number of endemic taxa. This may also be the case of the montane anole lizards Anolis nasofrontalis and A. pseudotigrinus, known from few specimens collected more than 40years ago. We combine new genetic data with published sequences of species in the Dactyloa clade of Anolis to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of A. nasofrontalis and A. pseudotigrinus, as well as estimate divergence times from their closest relatives. Based on newly sampled and previously overlooked specimens, we provide a taxonomic re-description of those two taxa. Our phylogenetic analysis recovered six main clades within Dactyloa, five of which were previously referred to as species series (aequatorialis, heterodermus, latifrons, punctatus, roquet). A sixth clade clustered A. nasofrontalis and A. pseudotigrinus with A. dissimilis from western Amazonia, A. calimae from the Andes, A. neblininus from the Guiana Shield, and two undescribed Andean taxa. We therefore define a sixth species series within Dactyloa: the neblininus series. Close phylogenetic relationships between highly disjunct, narrowly-distributed anoles suggest that patches of suitable habitat connected the southern Atlantic Forest to western South America during the Miocene, in agreement with the age of former connections between the central Andes and the Brazilian Shield as a result of Andean orogeny. The data also support the view of recurrent evolution (or loss) of a twig anole-like phenotype in mainland anoles, in apparent association with the occurrence in montane settings. Our findings stress the value of complementary genetic sampling efforts across South American countries to advance studies of mainland anole taxonomy and evolution.

Divergence of thermal physiological traits in terrestrial breeding frogs along a tropical elevational gradient.

Critical thermal limits are thought to be correlated with the elevational distribution of species living in tropical montane regions, but with upper limits being relatively invariant compared to lower limits. To test this hypothesis, we examined the variation of thermal physiological traits in a group of terrestrial breeding frogs (Craugastoridae) distributed along a tropical elevational gradient. We measured the critical thermal maximum (CT max; n = 22 species) and critical thermal minimum (CT min; n = 14 species) of frogs captured between the Amazon floodplain (250 m asl) and the high Andes (3,800 m asl). After inferring a multilocus species tree, we conducted a phylogenetically informed test of whether body size, body mass, and elevation contributed to the observed variation in CT max and CT min along the gradient. We also tested whether CT max and CT min exhibit different rates of change given that critical thermal limits (and their plasticity) may have evolved differently in response to different temperature constraints along the gradient. Variation of critical thermal traits was significantly correlated with species' elevational midpoint, their maximum and minimum elevations, as well as the maximum air temperature and the maximum operative temperature as measured across this gradient. Both thermal limits showed substantial variation, but CT min exhibited relatively faster rates of change than CT max, as observed in other taxa. Nonetheless, our findings call for caution in assuming inflexibility of upper thermal limits and underscore the value of collecting additional empirical data on species' thermal physiology across elevational gradients.

Comparative phylogeography in the Atlantic forest and Brazilian savannas: pleistocene fluctuations and dispersal shape spatial patterns in two bumblebees.

BACKGROUND: Bombus morio and B. pauloensis are sympatric widespread bumblebee species that occupy two major Brazilian biomes, the Atlantic forest and the savannas of the Cerrado. Differences in dispersion capacity, which is greater in B. morio, likely influence their phylogeographic patterns. This study asks which processes best explain the patterns of genetic variation observed in B. morio and B. pauloensis, shedding light on the phenomena that shaped the range of local populations and the spatial distribution of intra-specific lineages. RESULTS: Results suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations directly influenced the population structure of both species. Correlative species distribution models predict that the warmer conditions of the Last Interglacial contributed to population contraction, while demographic expansion happened during the Last Glacial Maximum. These results are consistent with physiological data suggesting that bumblebees are well adapted to colder conditions. Intra-specific mitochondrial genealogies are not congruent between the two species, which may be explained by their documented differences in dispersal ability. CONCLUSIONS: While populations of the high-dispersal B. morio are morphologically and genetically homogeneous across the species range, B. pauloensis encompasses multiple (three) mitochondrial lineages, and show clear genetic, geographic, and morphological differences. Because the lineages of B. pauloensis are currently exposed to distinct climatic conditions (and elevations), parapatric diversification may occur within this taxon. The eastern portion of the state of São Paulo, the most urbanized area in Brazil, represents the center of genetic diversity for B. pauloensis.

A mid-Pleistocene rainforest corridor enabled synchronous invasions of the Atlantic Forest by Amazonian anole lizards.

Shifts in the geographic distribution of habitats over time can promote dispersal and vicariance, thereby influencing large-scale biogeographic patterns and ecological processes. An example is that of transient corridors of suitable habitat across disjunct but ecologically similar regions, which have been associated with climate change over time. Such connections likely played a role in the assembly of tropical communities, especially within the highly diverse Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests of South America. Although these forests are presently separated by open and dry ecosystems, paleoclimatic and phylogenetic evidence suggest that they have been transiently connected in the past. However, little is known about the timing, magnitude and the distribution of former forest connections. We employ sequence data at multiple loci from three codistributed arboreal lizards (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii and Polychrus marmoratus) to infer the phylogenetic relationships among Amazonian and Atlantic Forest populations and to test alternative historical demographic scenarios of colonization and vicariance using coalescent simulations and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Data from the better-sampled Anolis species support colonization of the Atlantic Forest from eastern Amazonia. Hierarchical ABC indicates that the three species colonized the Atlantic Forest synchronously during the mid-Pleistocene. We find support of population bottlenecks associated with founder events in the two Anolis, but not in P. marmoratus, consistently with their distinct ecological tolerances. Our findings support that climatic fluctuations provided key opportunities for dispersal and forest colonization in eastern South America through the cessation of environmental barriers. Evidence of species-specific histories strengthens assertions that biological attributes play a role in responses to shared environmental change.

Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards.

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future.